Alright, let’s talk about something that’s been rattling around in my head lately for my fantasy drafts. It’s this whole Kincaid or Goedert situation at tight end. Seems like a common sticking point for a lot of folks this year, and I definitely spent some time wrestling with it myself.
Initially, my gut kind of leaned towards Goedert. You know, the guy’s been around, he’s on a high-powered offense with the Eagles, and when he’s healthy and on the field, he produces decent numbers. Seems like the safer floor, right? That’s usually where my brain goes first – find the reliable guy.
Digging into it
But then I started actually doing my homework, my usual process. Didn’t go super deep into crazy analytics, just the practical stuff.
- Goedert: Okay, checked his game logs from last year. Solid when playing. But that’s the thing, right? Staying on the field has been a bit iffy. Plus, you’ve got A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith gobbling up targets. And Jalen Hurts likes to run it in close. So, how many looks does Goedert really get consistently? It started feeling a bit capped.
- Kincaid: Then there’s the new guy in Buffalo. First-round pick, which always catches your eye. The Bills clearly want to use him, maybe in the slot a bunch. They lost some targets from last year’s roster. And he’s tied to Josh Allen, which is a big plus. But… rookie tight end. That’s usually a red flag for me. They take time to get going, happens almost every year. Plus, Dawson Knox is still there. Is it gonna be a frustrating timeshare?
So I’m sitting there, looking at the pros and cons. Goedert feels safer if healthy, but maybe his ceiling isn’t massive. Kincaid has that unknown upside, the potential connection with Allen, but comes with that classic rookie TE risk.
My Past Mistakes Talking
Here’s where my own history started messing with me. I remember a few seasons ago, I drafted a “safe” veteran tight end coming off a nagging injury. Everyone said he was a value. He played okay-ish for a few weeks, then bam, landed on IR and torpedoed my season because the waiver wire was barren. It just left a sour taste, you know? That Goedert injury history started flashing like a warning light in my head.
On the flip side, I’ve generally avoided rookie tight ends like the plague. Got burned once chasing hype years ago, learned my lesson. But watching some Bills preseason stuff, seeing how they were talking about Kincaid, it felt a little different. More like a big receiver than a traditional tight end. Maybe, just maybe, this situation is an exception?
Where I Landed (For Now)
So, after going back and forth, checking my league settings (it’s PPR, which helps pass-catchers), and thinking about that past injury fiasco, I started leaning towards the upside. I ended up bumping Kincaid slightly ahead of Goedert on my own draft board.
It’s purely a bet on talent and situation trumping the usual rookie learning curve. I feel like the Bills drafted Kincaid specifically to be a high-volume target for Allen, maybe taking over that Cole Beasley role, but bigger. Yeah, Knox is there, but maybe Kincaid’s role is just different. With Goedert, I just couldn’t shake the feeling of moderate production combined with that injury risk and serious target competition.
It wasn’t an easy call, and honestly, it could blow up in my face. Goedert could stay healthy and be a top-8 guy easily. Kincaid could struggle to adapt, or Knox could vulture all the touchdowns. But for my teams this year, I decided to swing for the fences a bit more at that position and take the chance on Kincaid’s potential ceiling.
That’s just my process, my practice run through the decision. Could be right, could be wrong, but that’s how I got there. We’ll see how it plays out!
