Okay, let’s talk about how I approached figuring out that Rublev vs Aliassime match prediction. It wasn’t some super complex formula, just my usual routine when I look at a matchup like this.
My Process Step-by-Step
First thing I did was just check their recent performance. You gotta know how they’re walking onto the court, right? I pulled up their results from the last few tournaments.
- I saw Rublev had a pretty rough patch before Madrid, losing quite a few early matches. But then, he started looking much better during this tournament. Seemed like he found his game again.
- For Aliassime, it was a bit weird. He got quite a few walkovers and retirements helping him get to the final. Good for him, saves energy, but it makes it harder to judge his actual level this week compared to someone who fought through tough matches.
Next up, I looked at their head-to-head record. How have they matched up against each other before? This stuff matters. I found that Rublev actually leads their matchups overall, which tells you something. But, I also noted that Aliassime won their most recent meeting, so you can’t just rely on the overall history.
Considering the Conditions and Styles
Then I thought about the surface. Madrid is played on clay, and it plays a bit faster because of the altitude. Generally, I feel Rublev‘s game, with his heavy forehand and baseline power, is pretty solid on clay. He can really dictate points. Aliassime has a big serve and forehand too, but sometimes he can be a bit more inconsistent, especially on clay where movement is key and rallies can get longer.
I also just considered their general styles. Rublev is relentless from the baseline. Aliassime tries to be aggressive, relies on his serve setting up points. Sometimes Felix struggles with unforced errors piling up if his A-game isn’t there.
Putting It All Together
So, I weighed these things up. Rublev seemed to be playing himself back into form right when it mattered. Yes, Aliassime had an easier path, maybe fresher legs, but he hadn’t been truly tested match after match like Rublev had in the later rounds here.
The head-to-head favored Rublev historically, even though Aliassime won the last one. The surface, I felt, slightly favored Rublev’s consistency and power baseline game over Aliassime’s sometimes erratic aggression.
My gut feeling, combined with Rublev finding his form again on a surface he likes, just leaned me towards him. Aliassime’s run felt a bit fortunate with the walkovers, making it tough to gauge his true peak level this specific week.
So, that was basically it. I checked recent form, looked at their past fights, thought about the court and how they play, and then just made a call based on what felt more likely given all that. No magic, just looking at the pieces I had. Ended up picking Rublev based on that process.
